Medical chiefs demand inquiry into ‘unrealistic’ national workforce plan
An inquiry into the NHS long-term workforce plan must be reopened because of “significant concerns” over how its proposals were determined, royal college chiefs have insisted.
Seven colleges led by the RCGP have written to the Commons’ Public Accounts Committee asking it to restart its probe into the workforce plan’s modelling. The PAC inquiry began earlier this year but was halted becasue of July’s general election.
It comes after the National Audit Office found “significant weaknesses” in the workforce plan’s projections, such as the number of fully qualified GPs it said would be required. HSJ has previously revealed GP numbers will barely increase under the national workforce plan.
NHSE has previously said the long-term workforce plan “is based on credible and robust modelling”, which was independently assessed by the Health Foundation think tank.
A letter to new PAC chair Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, which has also been signed by the Royal College of Physicians, said: “During the inquiry, written evidence submissions reflected significant concerns and recommendations regarding certain aspects of the LTWP.
“However, the general election halted this process, and the inquiry was closed before it was concluded. We are therefore calling on the committee to re-open its inquiry into the LTWP.”
The letter, shared with HSJ, called for the findings of the reopened inquiry to be published ahead of the workforce plan’s next iteration in summer 2025.
The letter added: “Several assumptions within the LTWP may be unrealistic. For example, the plan assumes a doubling of medical school places by 2031-32, a rise of 200,000 nursing staff and a reduction in international recruitment by the mid-2030s.
“The NAO expressed concern that these targets may not be realistic without considering potential capacity constraints or the risks associated with a rapid reduction of international recruitment.”
The RCGP is also calling for NHS England to launch a “comprehensive review” of the workforce plan, with a focus on GP retention, after a report found the NHS in England had the equivalent of 1,557 fewer fully qualified GPs last month than it did nine years ago in September.
The report on GP retention, published this week, also said training a GP costs around £500,000 and the cost of replacing one was estimated to be at least £300,000. It has called for NHSE to establish a national retention strategy for general practice that includes national ringfenced funding.
RCGP chair Kamila Hawthorne said: “At a time when patients are crying out for appointments, losing a single GP from the frontline is a major loss, and it is our patients who are bearing the brunt.
“The government must turn its attention to doing everything possible to retain our valued and experienced colleagues – and the recommendations laid out in our report are where it needs to start.”
In response, Sir Geoffrey told HSJ: “I would like to thank the RCGP for their submission to the previous committee’s inquiry. As the RCGP notes, the previous committee’s inquiry into this topic was necessarily halted by the general election.
“Due to the general election, there are a large number of NAO reports published this year which have not formed the basis of a PAC inquiry. The newly formed committee will be meeting in the coming days, when I will be inviting members to agree the committee’s forward programme.
“Whatever form that may take, the health sector and wider public can be confident that scrutiny of policy delivery with regard to the NHS will always be high on this committee’s agenda.”
HSJ has approached NHSE and the DHSC for comment.